Warning of economic associations: Brexit would be shock for British economy

The British are divided on the question of Brexit. Now, industry associations try to advertise with studies for remaining in the EU. Add an outlet for the country would be as expensive.

A withdrawal from the European Union would plunge Britain’s economy in years of uncertainty. Two studies commissioned by the CBI industrial association and European financial market Association AFME come to this conclusion.

Thus a Brexit would call into question Britain’s economic relations with the rest of the EU: higher interest rates for loans and lower investment would follow as well as restrictions on foreign trade.
The British are divided on the question of Brexit according to polls. The share of EU supporters is as the opponents about 40 percent, the rest is undecided.

The British economic strength according to CBI study in the worst scenario to 5.5 percent by 2020 would be less than at stayed in the EU. This corresponds to costs of around £100 billion, about 128 billion euros. 950,000 jobs would be lost.

In the best case the cost is £56 billion. In this scenario, United Kingdom is rapidly new free trade agreement with the EU.

Cost greater than the savings

The savings would be tainted by a Brexit the negative consequences for trade and investment by far, said CBI Director Carolyn Fairbairn. This leave cannot be avoided, even if United Kingdom is negotiating new trade agreements with the previous EU partners. “Even in the best case, there would be a major shock to the British economy.”

Positive effects of the Brexit are considered in the study. This includes for example, that United Kingdom should no longer pay into the EU budget.

Particularly hard, a Brexit would probably hit the banks. “Banks and investment firms likely significant adverse consequences come to as a result of new restrictions for cross-border transactions”, it says in the AFME study.